Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)
Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.95% per annum.
- ASTH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $62.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.35 (121.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.84% per annum.
- ASTH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.04 (8.76%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ASTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 4.9959
b = -0.0011
s = 0.2090
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2090) – 1
= 130.75%
June 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y415)
= Exp(a + b × X415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9959 + -0.0011 × 603 + 2 × 0.2090)
= Exp(4.7287)
= $113.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y415)
= Exp(a + b × X415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9959 + -0.0011 × 603 – 2 × 0.2090)
= Exp(3.8926)
= $49.04
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9959 + -0.0011 × 1,517 + 2 × 0.2090)
= Exp(3.6901)
= $40.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9959 + -0.0011 × 1,517 – 2 × 0.2090)
= Exp(2.8539)
= $17.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.95% per annum.
- ASTH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $62.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.35 (121.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2022
End date: October 15, 2024
a = 2.7591
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1116
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1116) – 1
= 56.25%
October 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7591 + 0.0006 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.1116)
= Exp(3.6201)
= $37.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7591 + 0.0006 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.1116)
= Exp(3.1738)
= $23.90
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7591 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1116)
= Exp(4.0512)
= $57.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7591 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1116)
= Exp(3.6049)
= $36.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.84% per annum.
- ASTH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.04 (8.76%).