Stock Price Trends

HCA Holdings Inc (HCA)

HCA Healthcare is an American for-profit operator of health care facilities that was founded in 1968. It is based in Nashville, Tennessee, and, as of May 2020, owns and operates 186 hospitals and approximately 2,000 sites of care, including surgery centers, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care centers and physician clinics in 21 states and the United Kingdom.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.79% per annum.
  • HCA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $345.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.42 (4.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.22% per annum.
  • HCA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: March 14, 2025

a = 8.1325

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0607

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0607) – 1
= 27.50%

August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1325 + -0.0013 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(6.1088)
= $449.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1325 + -0.0013 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.8659)
= $352.80

March 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1325 + -0.0013 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.8224)
= $337.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1325 + -0.0013 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(5.5794)
= $264.92

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.79% per annum.
  • HCA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $345.55 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.42 (4.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 11, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.1554

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0277

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.71%

December 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1554 + 0.0009 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.7655)
= $319.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1554 + 0.0009 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.6548)
= $285.66

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1554 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.8652)
= $352.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1554 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.7545)
= $315.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.22% per annum.
  • HCA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.