HCA Holdings Inc (HCA)
HCA Healthcare is an American for-profit operator of health care facilities that was founded in 1968. It is based in Nashville, Tennessee, and, as of May 2020, owns and operates 186 hospitals and approximately 2,000 sites of care, including surgery centers, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care centers and physician clinics in 21 states and the United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.73% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $341.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.33 (3.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.57% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2024
End date: March 17, 2025
a = 7.7264
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0653
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0653) – 1
= 29.87%
July 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7264 + -0.0011 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(6.1056)
= $448.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7264 + -0.0011 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(5.8442)
= $345.22
March 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7264 + -0.0011 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(5.8452)
= $345.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7264 + -0.0011 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(5.5838)
= $266.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.73% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $341.41 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.33 (3.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 4.2707
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.66%
December 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2707 + 0.0009 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.7679)
= $319.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2707 + 0.0009 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.6576)
= $286.45
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2707 + 0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.8823)
= $358.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2707 + 0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.7720)
= $321.18
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.57% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.