HCA Holdings Inc (HCA)
HCA Healthcare is an American for-profit operator of health care facilities that was founded in 1968. It is based in Nashville, Tennessee, and, as of May 2020, owns and operates 186 hospitals and approximately 2,000 sites of care, including surgery centers, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care centers and physician clinics in 21 states and the United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.72% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $347.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2,123.06 (85.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.41% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: September 29, 2021
a = 4.5459
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0330
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0330) – 1
= 14.11%
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5459 + 0.0018 × 339 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(5.2309)
= $186.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5459 + 0.0018 × 339 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(5.0989)
= $163.84
September 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y375)
= Exp(a + b × X375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5459 + 0.0018 × 544 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(5.6051)
= $271.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y375)
= Exp(a + b × X375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5459 + 0.0018 × 544 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(5.4732)
= $238.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.72% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $347.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2,123.06 (85.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 5.1277
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1182
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1182) – 1
= 60.45%
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1277 + 0.0004 × 339 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(5.4971)
= $243.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1277 + 0.0004 × 339 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(5.0243)
= $152.07
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1277 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(6.0805)
= $437.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1277 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1182)
= Exp(5.6077)
= $272.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.41% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.