HCA Holdings Inc (HCA)
HCA Healthcare, Inc. is a leading for-profit healthcare services provider based in Nashville, Tennessee, established in 1968. With a robust portfolio of 186 hospitals and approximately 2,000 outpatient facilities, including surgery centers and urgent care clinics, HCA operates across 21 states and the United Kingdom. The company is recognized for its commitment to delivering high-quality care and improving healthcare outcomes through innovation and operational excellence, positioning itself as a crucial player in the evolving healthcare landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.84% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of January 26, 2026 was $472.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.78% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of January 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 16, 2024
End date: January 26, 2026
a = 3.8573
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0428
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0428) – 1
= 18.65%
December 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8573 + 0.0013 × 1,419 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(5.7660)
= $319.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8573 + 0.0013 × 1,419 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(5.5950)
= $269.08
January 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8573 + 0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(6.2877)
= $537.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8573 + 0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(6.1167)
= $453.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.84% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of January 26, 2026 was $472.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 21, 2025
End date: January 26, 2026
a = 7.9088
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0188
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0188) – 1
= 7.83%
November 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9088 + -0.0010 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(6.2430)
= $514.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9088 + -0.0010 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(6.1676)
= $477.05
January 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9088 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(6.1791)
= $482.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9088 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(6.1037)
= $447.52
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.78% per annum.
- HCA price at the close of January 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.