Universal Health Services Inc (UHS)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is an American for-profit multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Minnetonka, Minnesota. It offers health care products and insurance services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.73% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $197.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.63 (9.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.86% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UHS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 9, 2023
End date: October 24, 2024
a = 2.7048
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0534
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0534) – 1
= 23.81%
August 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7048 + 0.0015 × 1,357 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(4.8863)
= $132.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7048 + 0.0015 × 1,357 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(4.6727)
= $106.99
October 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7048 + 0.0015 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.5620)
= $260.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7048 + 0.0015 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.3485)
= $210.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.73% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $197.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.63 (9.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 8.9720
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.57%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9720 + -0.0020 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.5698)
= $262.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9720 + -0.0020 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.4165)
= $225.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9720 + -0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.3915)
= $219.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9720 + -0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.2382)
= $188.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.86% per annum.
- UHS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.