The Ensign Group Inc (ENSG)
The Ensign Group, Inc. provides health care services in the post-acute care continuum and other ancillary businesses. The company is headquartered in San Juan Capistrano, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.26% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $144.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.10% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENSG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 16, 2023
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 3.1616
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0446
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.52%
May 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1616 + 0.0010 × 1,273 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.5528)
= $94.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1616 + 0.0010 × 1,273 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.3745)
= $79.40
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1616 + 0.0010 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.1133)
= $166.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1616 + 0.0010 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.9350)
= $139.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.26% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $144.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.1082
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.37%
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1082 + -0.0001 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.0519)
= $156.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1082 + -0.0001 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.9624)
= $142.94
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1082 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.0468)
= $155.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1082 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(4.9572)
= $142.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.10% per annum.
- ENSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.