National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)
National HealthCare Corporation operates, manages, and provides services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities, home health programs, and a behavioral health hospital. The company is headquartered in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.40% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $98.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.47 (21.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.60% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2023
End date: December 11, 2024
a = 2.2610
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0804
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0804) – 1
= 37.95%
January 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2610 + 0.0015 × 1,072 + 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(4.0214)
= $55.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2610 + 0.0015 × 1,072 – 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(3.6997)
= $40.44
December 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2610 + 0.0015 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(5.0764)
= $160.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2610 + 0.0015 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0804)
= Exp(4.7547)
= $116.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.40% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $98.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.47 (21.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 12.2740
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.85%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2740 + -0.0042 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.9677)
= $143.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2740 + -0.0042 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.8468)
= $127.33
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2740 + -0.0042 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.6213)
= $101.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2740 + -0.0042 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.5004)
= $90.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.60% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.