National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)
National HealthCare Corporation operates, manages, and provides services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities, home health programs, and a behavioral health hospital. The company is headquartered in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.81% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $94.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.29% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 7.4576
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0509
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0509) – 1
= 22.57%
August 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4576 + -0.0016 × 1,571 + 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(5.0007)
= $148.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4576 + -0.0016 × 1,571 – 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(4.7972)
= $121.18
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4576 + -0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(4.5887)
= $98.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4576 + -0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0509)
= Exp(4.3852)
= $80.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.81% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $94.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 4.4621
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0136
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0136) – 1
= 5.58%
February 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4621 + 0.0000 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(4.5513)
= $94.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4621 + 0.0000 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(4.4970)
= $89.75
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4621 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(4.5535)
= $94.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4621 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(4.4992)
= $89.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.29% per annum.
- NHC price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.