Option Care Health Inc (OPCH)
Option Care Health, Inc. offers infusion services at home and at alternative sites in the United States. The company is headquartered in Bannockburn, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.16% per annum.
- OPCH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $21.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.54 (20.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.46% per annum.
- OPCH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.48 (10.19%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OPCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2022
End date: October 29, 2024
a = 3.3847
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0667
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0667) – 1
= 30.57%
March 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y590)
= Exp(a + b × X590 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3847 + 0.0000 × 856 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.5451)
= $34.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y590)
= Exp(a + b × X590 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3847 + 0.0000 × 856 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.2783)
= $26.53
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3847 + 0.0000 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.5750)
= $35.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3847 + 0.0000 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.3083)
= $27.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.16% per annum.
- OPCH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $21.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.54 (20.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.0051
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0745
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0745) – 1
= 34.71%
July 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0051 + -0.0004 × 1,332 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(3.6684)
= $39.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0051 + -0.0004 × 1,332 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(3.3705)
= $29.09
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0051 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(3.4883)
= $32.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0051 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(3.1903)
= $24.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.46% per annum.
- OPCH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.48 (10.19%).