Stock Price Trends

T. Rowe Price Group Inc (TROW)

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. is an American publicly owned global investment management firm that offers funds, advisory services, account management, and retirement plans and services for individuals, institutions, and financial intermediaries.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.07% per annum.
  • TROW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $117.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1,096.72 (90.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.46% per annum.
  • TROW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TROW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: September 10, 2021

a = 4.2202

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0163

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.74%

March 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2202 + 0.0016 × 467 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.9982)
= $148.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2202 + 0.0016 × 467 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.9330)
= $138.80

September 10, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y454)
= Exp(a + b × X454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2202 + 0.0016 × 660 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(5.3063)
= $201.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y454)
= Exp(a + b × X454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2202 + 0.0016 × 660 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(5.2411)
= $188.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.07% per annum.
  • TROW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $117.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1,096.72 (90.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.6115

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0653

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0653) – 1
= 29.83%

April 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y611)
= Exp(a + b × X611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 888 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6115 + 0.0000 × 888 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(4.7773)
= $118.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y611)
= Exp(a + b × X611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 888 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6115 + 0.0000 × 888 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(4.5162)
= $91.49

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6115 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(4.8145)
= $123.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6115 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(4.5534)
= $94.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.46% per annum.
  • TROW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.