Stock Price Trends

KKR & Co LP (KKR)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 97.25% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $135.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.46% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KKR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 1.5028

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0676

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 97.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.07%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5028 + 0.0019 × 1,240 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(3.9457)
= $51.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5028 + 0.0019 × 1,240 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(3.6752)
= $39.46

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5028 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(5.0363)
= $153.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5028 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.7658)
= $117.42

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 97.25% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $135.67 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 26, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 2.2538

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0395

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0395) – 1
= 17.12%

January 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2538 + 0.0014 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.5646)
= $96.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2538 + 0.0014 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.4066)
= $81.99

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2538 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.9418)
= $140.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2538 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.7838)
= $119.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.46% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.