Stock Price Trends

KKR & Co LP (KKR)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.77% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $152.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 186.83% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KKR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.5350

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0667

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0667) – 1
= 30.59%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5350 + 0.0019 × 1,206 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.9384)
= $51.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5350 + 0.0019 × 1,206 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(3.6715)
= $39.31

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5350 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(5.1053)
= $164.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5350 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.8384)
= $126.27

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.77% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $152.78 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.2507

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0276

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 186.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.66%

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2507 + 0.0029 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.7612)
= $116.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2507 + 0.0029 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.6509)
= $104.68

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2507 + 0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(5.0759)
= $160.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2507 + 0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.9656)
= $143.39

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 186.83% per annum.
  • KKR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.