Stepstone Group Inc (STEP)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.78% per annum.
- STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $52.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.83 (13.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.25% per annum.
- STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 1.3884
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0888
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0888) – 1
= 42.65%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 905 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.1415)
= $23.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 905 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(2.7863)
= $16.22
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.3827)
= $80.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.0275)
= $56.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.78% per annum.
- STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $52.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.83 (13.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.0512
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0504
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.36%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.2870)
= $72.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.0852)
= $59.45
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.1081)
= $60.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.9063)
= $49.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.25% per annum.
- STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.