Stock Price Trends

Stepstone Group Inc (STEP)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.78% per annum.
  • STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $52.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.83 (13.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.25% per annum.
  • STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 1.3884

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0888

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0888) – 1
= 42.65%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 905 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.1415)
= $23.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y624)
= Exp(a + b × X624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 905 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(2.7863)
= $16.22

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.3827)
= $80.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3884 + 0.0017 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.0275)
= $56.12

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.78% per annum.
  • STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $52.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.83 (13.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 6.0512

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0504

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.36%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.2870)
= $72.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.0852)
= $59.45

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(4.1081)
= $60.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0512 + -0.0012 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.9063)
= $49.72

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.25% per annum.
  • STEP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.