Stock Price Trends

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc (APAM)

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; New York City; San Francisco, California; Leawood, Kansas; and London, United Kingdom.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.38% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $41.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.20% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: December 27, 2024

a = 2.5844

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0750

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0750) – 1
= 34.97%

September 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 909 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5844 + 0.0007 × 909 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.3757)
= $29.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 909 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5844 + 0.0007 × 909 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.0758)
= $21.67

December 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5844 + 0.0007 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.9741)
= $53.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5844 + 0.0007 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.6742)
= $39.42

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.38% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $41.98 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 3.2810

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0511

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0511) – 1
= 22.66%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2810 + 0.0003 × 1,377 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(3.7495)
= $42.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2810 + 0.0003 × 1,377 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(3.5453)
= $34.65

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2810 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(3.8687)
= $47.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2810 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(3.6645)
= $39.04

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.20% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.