Stock Price Trends

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc (APAM)

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; New York City; San Francisco, California; Leawood, Kansas; and London, United Kingdom.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.93% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $46.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.13% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.29 (5.18%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: June 11, 2024

a = 2.3412

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0719

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0719) – 1
= 33.30%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3412 + 0.0009 × 1,028 + 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(3.3701)
= $29.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3412 + 0.0009 × 1,028 – 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(3.0827)
= $21.82

June 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3412 + 0.0009 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(3.9187)
= $50.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3412 + 0.0009 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(3.6312)
= $37.76

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.93% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $46.43 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: October 11, 2024

a = 3.7013

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0399

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0399) – 1
= 17.30%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7013 + 0.0000 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.7863)
= $44.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7013 + 0.0000 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.6267)
= $37.59

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7013 + 0.0000 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.7873)
= $44.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7013 + 0.0000 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(3.6277)
= $37.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.13% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.29 (5.18%).