Stock Price Trends

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc (APAM)

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; New York City; San Francisco, California; Leawood, Kansas; and London, United Kingdom.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.32% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $39.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.52 (5.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.21% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: December 27, 2024

a = 2.6052

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0750

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0750) – 1
= 35.00%

August 31, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6052 + 0.0007 × 881 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.3758)
= $29.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6052 + 0.0007 × 881 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.0757)
= $21.67

December 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6052 + 0.0007 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.9739)
= $53.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6052 + 0.0007 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.6738)
= $39.40

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.32% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $39.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.52 (5.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 3.3634

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0524

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0524) – 1
= 23.30%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y931)
= Exp(a + b × X931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3634 + 0.0002 × 1,350 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.7599)
= $42.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y931)
= Exp(a + b × X931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3634 + 0.0002 × 1,350 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.5504)
= $34.83

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3634 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.8625)
= $47.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3634 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.6531)
= $38.59

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.21% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.