Stock Price Trends

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc (APAM)

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; New York City; San Francisco, California; Leawood, Kansas; and London, United Kingdom.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.20% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $37.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.13 (12.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.89% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.47 (3.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 29, 2022
End date: December 27, 2024

a = 2.6118

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0752

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0752) – 1
= 35.08%

August 29, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6118 + 0.0007 × 875 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(3.3762)
= $29.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6118 + 0.0007 × 875 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(3.0755)
= $21.66

December 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6118 + 0.0007 × 1,726 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(3.9734)
= $53.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6118 + 0.0007 × 1,726 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(3.6727)
= $39.36

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.20% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $37.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.13 (12.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 3.3765

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0529

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0529) – 1
= 23.58%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3765 + 0.0002 × 1,346 + 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(3.7623)
= $43.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3765 + 0.0002 × 1,346 – 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(3.5506)
= $34.83

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3765 + 0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(3.8615)
= $47.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3765 + 0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(3.6498)
= $38.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.89% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.47 (3.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.