Stock Price Trends

Bank of New York Mellon (BK)

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation, commonly known as BNY Mellon, is a multinational American investment banking services holding company headquartered in New York City.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.78% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $77.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.71% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.8295

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0417

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.14%

August 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y937)
= Exp(a + b × X937 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8295 + 0.0014 × 1,363 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.7779)
= $43.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y937)
= Exp(a + b × X937 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8295 + 0.0014 × 1,363 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.6112)
= $37.01

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8295 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.4114)
= $82.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8295 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.2447)
= $69.74

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.78% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $77.87 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 11, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 0.6695

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0189

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.85%

June 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6695 + 0.0020 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.0835)
= $59.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6695 + 0.0020 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.0080)
= $55.03

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6695 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.4122)
= $82.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6695 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.3366)
= $76.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.71% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.