Carlyle Group Inc (CG)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.85% per annum.
- CG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $43.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.11 (0.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.52% per annum.
- CG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 2.4138
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1026
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1026) – 1
= 50.76%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4138 + 0.0009 × 902 + 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(3.3944)
= $29.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4138 + 0.0009 × 902 – 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(2.9839)
= $19.76
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4138 + 0.0009 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(4.1637)
= $64.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4138 + 0.0009 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.1026)
= Exp(3.7532)
= $42.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.85% per annum.
- CG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $43.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.11 (0.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: March 21, 2025
a = 13.0172
b = -0.0051
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.29%
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0172 + -0.0051 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.1515)
= $63.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0172 + -0.0051 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.9835)
= $53.71
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0172 + -0.0051 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.8243)
= $45.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.0172 + -0.0051 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.6564)
= $38.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.52% per annum.
- CG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.