Carlyle Group Inc (CG)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.08% per annum.
- CG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $51.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 364.81% per annum.
- CG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.3529
b = 0.0008
s = 0.1060
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1060) – 1
= 52.83%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3529 + 0.0008 × 1,036 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(3.4183)
= $30.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3529 + 0.0008 × 1,036 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(2.9942)
= $19.97
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3529 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(4.0691)
= $58.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3529 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(3.6449)
= $38.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.08% per annum.
- CG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $51.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -3.6933
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0405
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 364.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0405) – 1
= 17.58%
August 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6933 + 0.0042 × 1,741 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.7164)
= $41.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6933 + 0.0042 × 1,741 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.5544)
= $34.97
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6933 + 0.0042 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.0742)
= $58.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6933 + 0.0042 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(3.9123)
= $50.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 364.81% per annum.
- CG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.