Stock Price Trends

Signet Jewelers Ltd (SIG)

Signet Jewelers Limited is engaged in the retail sale of diamond jewelry, watches and other products. The company is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.40% per annum.
  • SIG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $96.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.07% per annum.
  • SIG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SIG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.0006

b = 0.0003

s = 0.1600

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1600) – 1
= 89.65%

March 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0006 + 0.0003 × 473 + 2 × 0.1600)
= Exp(4.4489)
= $85.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0006 + 0.0003 × 473 – 2 × 0.1600)
= Exp(3.8089)
= $45.10

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0006 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1600)
= Exp(4.8157)
= $123.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0006 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1600)
= Exp(4.1757)
= $65.09

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.40% per annum.
  • SIG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $96.70 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.4610

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1086

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1086) – 1
= 54.42%

May 11, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4610 + 0.0006 × 902 + 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(4.2507)
= $70.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4610 + 0.0006 × 902 – 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(3.8162)
= $45.43

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4610 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(4.8372)
= $126.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4610 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(4.4027)
= $81.67

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.07% per annum.
  • SIG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.