National Vision Holdings Inc (EYE)
National Vision Holdings, Inc., is an optical retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.95% per annum.
- EYE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $11.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.05% per annum.
- EYE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.29 (2.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EYE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.8413
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1878
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1878) – 1
= 111.93%
June 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 579 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8413 + -0.0013 × 579 + 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(4.4599)
= $86.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y397)
= Exp(a + b × X397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 579 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8413 + -0.0013 × 579 – 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(3.7088)
= $40.81
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8413 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(2.8297)
= $16.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8413 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(2.0786)
= $7.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.95% per annum.
- EYE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $11.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 8.0627
b = -0.0032
s = 0.1032
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1032) – 1
= 51.13%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0627 + -0.0032 × 1,541 + 2 × 0.1032)
= Exp(3.3179)
= $27.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0627 + -0.0032 × 1,541 – 2 × 0.1032)
= Exp(2.9049)
= $18.26
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0627 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1032)
= Exp(2.4022)
= $11.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0627 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1032)
= Exp(1.9892)
= $7.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.05% per annum.
- EYE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.29 (2.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.