Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty products. The company is headquartered in Denton, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.99% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $13.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.39 (46.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.76% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: December 11, 2023
a = 3.4442
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1250
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1250) – 1
= 64.87%
March 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4442 + -0.0008 × 454 + 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(3.3365)
= $28.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4442 + -0.0008 × 454 – 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(2.8365)
= $17.06
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4442 + -0.0008 × 1,469 + 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(2.5368)
= $12.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4442 + -0.0008 × 1,469 – 2 × 0.1250)
= Exp(2.0368)
= $7.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.99% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $13.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.39 (46.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: December 2, 2024
a = 1.2476
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1216
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1216) – 1
= 62.63%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2476 + 0.0007 × 1,351 + 2 × 0.1216)
= Exp(2.4835)
= $11.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2476 + 0.0007 × 1,351 – 2 × 0.1216)
= Exp(1.9972)
= $7.37
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2476 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1216)
= Exp(2.8326)
= $16.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2476 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1216)
= Exp(2.3463)
= $10.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.76% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.