Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty products. The company is headquartered in Denton, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.35% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $10.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.73 (20.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 71.45% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.24%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2024
End date: May 9, 2025
a = 6.0085
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0738
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0738) – 1
= 34.35%
August 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0085 + -0.0022 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(2.8313)
= $16.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0085 + -0.0022 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(2.5360)
= $12.63
May 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0085 + -0.0022 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(2.2503)
= $9.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0085 + -0.0022 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(1.9550)
= $7.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.35% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $10.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.73 (20.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: July 2, 2025
a = -0.4692
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0466
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 71.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0466) – 1
= 20.47%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4692 + 0.0015 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(2.1821)
= $8.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4692 + 0.0015 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(1.9959)
= $7.36
July 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4692 + 0.0015 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(2.3150)
= $10.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4692 + 0.0015 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(2.1288)
= $8.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 71.45% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.24%).