Stock Price Trends

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS)

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc., is a sporting goods retailer primarily in the eastern United States. The company is headquartered in Coraopolis, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.63% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $194.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.51% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DKS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 15, 2021
End date: February 6, 2024

a = 4.2455

b = 0.0004

s = 0.1472

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1472) – 1
= 80.18%

March 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2455 + 0.0004 × 480 + 2 × 0.1472)
= Exp(4.7422)
= $114.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2455 + 0.0004 × 480 – 2 × 0.1472)
= Exp(4.1534)
= $63.65

February 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2455 + 0.0004 × 1,538 + 2 × 0.1472)
= Exp(5.1881)
= $179.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2455 + 0.0004 × 1,538 – 2 × 0.1472)
= Exp(4.5993)
= $99.42

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.63% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $194.18 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.4890

b = 0.0010

s = 0.1368

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1368) – 1
= 72.85%

April 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 887 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4890 + 0.0010 × 887 + 2 × 0.1368)
= Exp(4.6908)
= $108.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 887 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4890 + 0.0010 × 887 – 2 × 0.1368)
= Exp(4.1435)
= $63.03

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4890 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1368)
= Exp(5.6734)
= $291.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4890 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1368)
= Exp(5.1262)
= $168.37

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.51% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.