Five Below Inc (FIVE)
Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.76% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $74.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.46% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIVE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.9286
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1832
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1832) – 1
= 108.05%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9286 + -0.0014 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.1832)
= Exp(5.8575)
= $349.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9286 + -0.0014 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.1832)
= Exp(5.1249)
= $168.16
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9286 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1832)
= Exp(4.7604)
= $116.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9286 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1832)
= Exp(4.0278)
= $56.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.76% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $74.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 5, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 10.7648
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0391
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.92%
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7648 + -0.0035 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.8058)
= $122.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7648 + -0.0035 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.6494)
= $104.53
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7648 + -0.0035 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.3960)
= $81.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7648 + -0.0035 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.2397)
= $69.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.46% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.