Five Below Inc (FIVE)
Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.67% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $83.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 127.68% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIVE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 21, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.0862
b = -0.0032
s = 0.1584
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1584) – 1
= 88.41%
November 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0862 + -0.0032 × 1,461 + 2 × 0.1584)
= Exp(5.7577)
= $316.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0862 + -0.0032 × 1,461 – 2 × 0.1584)
= Exp(5.1242)
= $168.04
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0862 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1584)
= Exp(4.5972)
= $99.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0862 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1584)
= Exp(3.9637)
= $52.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.67% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $83.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.4524
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0837
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 127.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0837) – 1
= 39.79%
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4524 + 0.0023 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.4519)
= $85.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4524 + 0.0023 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.1170)
= $61.37
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4524 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.7359)
= $113.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4524 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.4010)
= $81.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 127.68% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.