MarineMax Inc (HZO)
MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.80% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.15% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2021
End date: May 31, 2024
a = 4.2344
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1252) – 1
= 64.98%
January 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 428 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.2405)
= $69.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 428 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.7398)
= $42.09
May 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.5414)
= $34.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.0408)
= $20.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.80% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.4525
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0933
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0933) – 1
= 45.25%
September 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,020 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.6350)
= $37.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,020 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.2617)
= $26.09
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.6317)
= $37.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.2584)
= $26.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.15% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.