Stock Price Trends

MarineMax Inc (HZO)

MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.80% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.15% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2021
End date: May 31, 2024

a = 4.2344

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1252

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1252) – 1
= 64.98%

January 22, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 428 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.2405)
= $69.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 428 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.7398)
= $42.09

May 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.5414)
= $34.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2344 + -0.0006 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.0408)
= $20.92

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.80% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.96 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 6, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.4525

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0933

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0933) – 1
= 45.25%

September 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,020 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.6350)
= $37.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,020 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.2617)
= $26.09

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.6317)
= $37.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4525 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0933)
= Exp(3.2584)
= $26.01

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.15% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.