Stock Price Trends

MarineMax Inc (HZO)

MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $21.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.23 (11.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.50% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.82 (15.00%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 17, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023

a = 4.3666

b = -0.0009

s = 0.1034

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1034) – 1
= 51.23%

February 17, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y220)
= Exp(a + b × X220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3666 + -0.0009 × 321 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(4.2908)
= $73.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y220)
= Exp(a + b × X220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3666 + -0.0009 × 321 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.8772)
= $48.29

June 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y798)
= Exp(a + b × X798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3666 + -0.0009 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.5529)
= $34.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y798)
= Exp(a + b × X798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3666 + -0.0009 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.1393)
= $23.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $21.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.23 (11.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 3.4968

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0920

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0920) – 1
= 44.49%

August 31, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 881 + 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.6445)
= $38.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 881 – 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.2765)
= $26.48

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.6072)
= $36.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.2391)
= $25.51

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.50% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.82 (15.00%).