MarineMax Inc (HZO)
MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $21.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.57 (13.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.50% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.49 (13.70%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023
a = 4.3657
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1034
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1034) – 1
= 51.23%
February 17, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3657 + -0.0009 × 320 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(4.2908)
= $73.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3657 + -0.0009 × 320 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.8772)
= $48.29
June 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3657 + -0.0009 × 1,158 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.5529)
= $34.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3657 + -0.0009 × 1,158 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.1393)
= $23.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $21.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.57 (13.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 3.4968
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0920
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0920) – 1
= 44.49%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 880 + 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.6445)
= $38.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 880 – 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.2765)
= $26.48
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.6072)
= $36.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4968 + 0.0000 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0920)
= Exp(3.2391)
= $25.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.50% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.49 (13.70%).