Stock Price Trends

MarineMax Inc (HZO)

MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $22.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.64 (19.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.31% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 24, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.38 (1.65%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 17, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023

a = 4.3446

b = -0.0009

s = 0.1034

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1034) – 1
= 51.23%

February 17, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3446 + -0.0009 × 296 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(4.2908)
= $73.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3446 + -0.0009 × 296 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.8772)
= $48.29

June 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3446 + -0.0009 × 1,134 + 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.5529)
= $34.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y782)
= Exp(a + b × X782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3446 + -0.0009 × 1,134 – 2 × 0.1034)
= Exp(3.1393)
= $23.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $22.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.64 (19.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 30, 2022
End date: February 28, 2025

a = 3.7336

b = -0.0002

s = 0.1083

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1083) – 1
= 54.21%

March 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y486)
= Exp(a + b × X486 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7336 + -0.0002 × 702 + 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(3.8041)
= $44.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y486)
= Exp(a + b × X486 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7336 + -0.0002 × 702 – 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(3.3709)
= $29.11

February 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7336 + -0.0002 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(3.5823)
= $35.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7336 + -0.0002 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.1083)
= Exp(3.1491)
= $23.31

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.31% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of April 24, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.38 (1.65%).