Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., is a retailer of sporting goods and outdoor recreational products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Katy, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.67% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $45.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.89% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.15 (0.33%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ASO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 19, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.2025
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0714
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0714) – 1
= 33.08%
December 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2025 + -0.0008 × 1,173 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.3485)
= $77.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2025 + -0.0008 × 1,173 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.0627)
= $58.13
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2025 + -0.0008 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.0621)
= $58.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2025 + -0.0008 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(3.7763)
= $43.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.67% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $45.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 9.5842
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0257
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0257) – 1
= 10.81%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5842 + -0.0038 × 1,445 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(4.1645)
= $64.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5842 + -0.0038 × 1,445 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(4.0618)
= $58.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5842 + -0.0038 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.9184)
= $50.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5842 + -0.0038 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(3.8157)
= $45.41
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.89% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.15 (0.33%).