Stock Price Trends

Stifel Financial Corporation (SF)

Stifel Financial Corp. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.01% per annum.
  • SF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $113.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.93 (3.60%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 373.17% per annum.
  • SF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 25, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 2.2531

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0443

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.40%

September 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2531 + 0.0013 × 1,405 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.1513)
= $63.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2531 + 0.0013 × 1,405 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(3.9740)
= $53.19

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2531 + 0.0013 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.6754)
= $107.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2531 + 0.0013 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.4981)
= $89.85

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.01% per annum.
  • SF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $113.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.93 (3.60%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -3.0236

b = 0.0043

s = 0.0254

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 373.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0254) – 1
= 10.67%

September 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0236 + 0.0043 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(4.4749)
= $87.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0236 + 0.0043 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(4.3735)
= $79.32

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0236 + 0.0043 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(4.8028)
= $121.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.0236 + 0.0043 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(4.7014)
= $110.10

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 373.17% per annum.
  • SF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.