Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)
The Charles Schwab Corporation is an American multinational financial services company. It offers banking, commercial banking, an electronic trading platform, and wealth management advisory services to both retail and institutional clients.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.51% per annum.
- SCHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $80.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.93% per annum.
- SCHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCHW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: October 14, 2024
a = 4.3492
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1358
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1358) – 1
= 72.17%
April 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y342)
= Exp(a + b × X342 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3492 + -0.0001 × 498 + 2 × 0.1358)
= Exp(4.5578)
= $95.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y342)
= Exp(a + b × X342 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3492 + -0.0001 × 498 – 2 × 0.1358)
= Exp(4.0146)
= $55.40
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3492 + -0.0001 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.1358)
= Exp(4.3944)
= $81.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3492 + -0.0001 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.1358)
= Exp(3.8512)
= $47.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.51% per annum.
- SCHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $80.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.2310
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0859
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0859) – 1
= 41.01%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2310 + 0.0006 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.1136)
= $61.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2310 + 0.0006 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(3.7699)
= $43.38
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2310 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.4763)
= $87.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2310 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.1326)
= $62.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.93% per annum.
- SCHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.