BGC Group Inc. (BGC)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.53% per annum.
- BGC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $10.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.55% per annum.
- BGC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BGC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2023
End date: September 24, 2024
a = -0.7161
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0542
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.22%
April 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7161 + 0.0017 × 1,231 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(1.5129)
= $4.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7161 + 0.0017 × 1,231 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(1.2961)
= $3.65
September 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7161 + 0.0017 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.4415)
= $11.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7161 + 0.0017 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(2.2246)
= $9.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.53% per annum.
- BGC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $10.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = -0.0267
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.14%
November 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0267 + 0.0013 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(1.9394)
= $6.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0267 + 0.0013 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(1.7477)
= $5.74
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0267 + 0.0013 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(2.4193)
= $11.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0267 + 0.0013 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(2.2276)
= $9.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.55% per annum.
- BGC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.