Stock Price Trends

Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI)

Houlihan Lokey, Inc., an investment banking firm, provides valuation and financial advisory services, capital markets, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) globally. The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.51% per annum.
  • HLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $185.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.78 (3.22%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 112.32% per annum.
  • HLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HLI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 24, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 3.0334

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0383

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.55%

March 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0334 + 0.0011 × 1,220 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.4988)
= $89.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0334 + 0.0011 × 1,220 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.3457)
= $77.15

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0334 + 0.0011 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.1727)
= $176.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0334 + 0.0011 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.0196)
= $151.35

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.51% per annum.
  • HLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $185.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.78 (3.22%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 6, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.4322

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0251

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 112.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0251) – 1
= 10.55%

June 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4322 + 0.0021 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.9066)
= $135.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4322 + 0.0021 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.8063)
= $122.27

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4322 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(5.2490)
= $190.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4322 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(5.1487)
= $172.20

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 112.32% per annum.
  • HLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.