Stock Price Trends

Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF)

Raymond James Financial is an American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company providing financial services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities through its subsidiary companies that engage primarily in investment and financial planning, in addition to investment banking and asset management.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.74% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $162.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.83 (15.50%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 541.59% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RJF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: October 10, 2024

a = 4.3212

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0805

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0805) – 1
= 38.01%

March 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3212 + 0.0003 × 492 + 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(4.6075)
= $100.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3212 + 0.0003 × 492 – 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(4.2854)
= $72.63

October 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3212 + 0.0003 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(4.9371)
= $139.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3212 + 0.0003 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0805)
= Exp(4.6150)
= $100.99

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.74% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $162.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.83 (15.50%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 6, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -4.2071

b = 0.0051

s = 0.0267

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 541.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.27%

September 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2071 + 0.0051 × 1,752 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.7685)
= $117.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2071 + 0.0051 × 1,752 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6616)
= $105.81

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2071 + 0.0051 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(5.1453)
= $171.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2071 + 0.0051 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(5.0385)
= $154.24

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 541.59% per annum.
  • RJF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.