Morgan Stanley (MS)
Morgan Stanley is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered at 1585 Broadway in the Morgan Stanley Building, Midtown Manhattan, New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.94% per annum.
- MS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $132.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.59 (34.05%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.50% per annum.
- MS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.46 (6.83%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2021
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 4.3751
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0849
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0849) – 1
= 40.41%
February 24, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3751 + 0.0000 × 462 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.5566)
= $95.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3751 + 0.0000 × 462 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.2172)
= $67.85
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3751 + 0.0000 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.5865)
= $98.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3751 + 0.0000 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.2471)
= $69.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.94% per annum.
- MS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $132.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.59 (34.05%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 2.8799
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0486
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.48%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8799 + 0.0010 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(4.3950)
= $81.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8799 + 0.0010 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(4.2005)
= $66.72
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8799 + 0.0010 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(4.8044)
= $122.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8799 + 0.0010 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(4.6099)
= $100.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.50% per annum.
- MS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.46 (6.83%).