Stock Price Trends

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in New York City. It offers services in investment management, securities, asset management, prime brokerage, and securities underwriting. It also provides investment banking to institutional investors.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.78% per annum.
  • GS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $581.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 203.43% per annum.
  • GS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 18, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.8221

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0431

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.81%

August 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,367 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8221 + 0.0014 × 1,367 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.7787)
= $323.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,367 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8221 + 0.0014 × 1,367 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(5.6063)
= $272.15

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8221 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(6.4067)
= $605.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8221 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(6.2344)
= $509.99

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.78% per annum.
  • GS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $581.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 10, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 0.8084

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0327

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 203.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.97%

September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8084 + 0.0030 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.2138)
= $499.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8084 + 0.0030 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.0831)
= $438.39

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8084 + 0.0030 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.4267)
= $618.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8084 + 0.0030 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.2960)
= $542.39

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 203.43% per annum.
  • GS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.