Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in New York City. It offers services in investment management, securities, asset management, prime brokerage, and securities underwriting. It also provides investment banking to institutional investors.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.41% per annum.
- GS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $546.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $66.36 (10.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.43% per annum.
- GS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 3.9578
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0433
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0433) – 1
= 18.91%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9578 + 0.0014 × 1,231 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(5.7621)
= $318.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y848)
= Exp(a + b × X848 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9578 + 0.0014 × 1,231 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(5.5889)
= $267.45
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9578 + 0.0014 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(6.5519)
= $700.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9578 + 0.0014 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(6.3787)
= $589.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.41% per annum.
- GS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $546.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $66.36 (10.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 11.4706
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0425) – 1
= 18.52%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4706 + -0.0028 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(6.5820)
= $722.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4706 + -0.0028 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(6.4121)
= $609.17
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4706 + -0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(6.3866)
= $593.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4706 + -0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0425)
= Exp(6.2167)
= $501.03
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.43% per annum.
- GS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.