Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Rockwell Automation, Inc. is an American provider of industrial automation and information technology. Its brands include Allen-Bradley and Factory Talk software.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.42% per annum.
- ROK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $278.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.43% per annum.
- ROK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 6.0949
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0510
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0510) – 1
= 22.63%
June 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y888)
= Exp(a + b × X888 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0949 + -0.0003 × 1,290 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(5.8082)
= $333.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y888)
= Exp(a + b × X888 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0949 + -0.0003 × 1,290 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(5.6042)
= $271.56
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0949 + -0.0003 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(5.6509)
= $284.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0949 + -0.0003 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(5.4469)
= $232.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.42% per annum.
- ROK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $278.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.1806
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0206
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.61%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1806 + 0.0008 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.5784)
= $264.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1806 + 0.0008 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.4958)
= $243.66
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1806 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.6645)
= $288.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1806 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.5819)
= $265.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.43% per annum.
- ROK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.