Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY)
Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, modules, and subsystems in the United States, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The company is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.75% per annum.
- MRCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.93% per annum.
- MRCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRCY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.4287
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0714
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0714) – 1
= 33.08%
February 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4287 + 0.0012 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(3.4409)
= $31.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4287 + 0.0012 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(3.1551)
= $23.46
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4287 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(3.7881)
= $44.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4287 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(3.5023)
= $33.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.75% per annum.
- MRCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.8570
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0696
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.13%
August 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8570 + -0.0001 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.7569)
= $42.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8570 + -0.0001 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.4783)
= $32.40
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8570 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.7434)
= $42.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8570 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.4649)
= $31.97
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.93% per annum.
- MRCY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.