Stock Price Trends

Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC)

Generac Holdings Inc., commonly referred to as Generac, is a Fortune 1000 American manufacturer of backup power generation products for residential, light commercial and industrial markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.63% per annum.
  • GNRC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $179.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 334.42% per annum.
  • GNRC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.8677

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0732

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0732) – 1
= 34.02%

September 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8677 + 0.0012 × 1,398 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(4.7571)
= $116.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8677 + 0.0012 × 1,398 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(4.4643)
= $86.86

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8677 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(5.2907)
= $198.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8677 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(4.9979)
= $148.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.63% per annum.
  • GNRC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $179.94 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 5, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -2.1030

b = 0.0040

s = 0.0383

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 334.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.54%

September 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1030 + 0.0040 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.0200)
= $151.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1030 + 0.0040 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.8669)
= $129.92

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1030 + 0.0040 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.3218)
= $204.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.1030 + 0.0040 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.1687)
= $175.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 334.42% per annum.
  • GNRC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.