Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC)
Generac Holdings Inc., commonly referred to as Generac, is a Fortune 1000 American manufacturer of backup power generation products for residential, light commercial and industrial markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.94% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $126.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.23 (3.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.37% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2022
End date: February 19, 2025
a = 4.0757
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1133
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1133) – 1
= 57.31%
October 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0757 + 0.0006 × 931 + 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(4.8291)
= $125.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0757 + 0.0006 × 931 – 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(4.3760)
= $79.52
February 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0757 + 0.0006 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(5.3123)
= $202.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0757 + 0.0006 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(4.8593)
= $128.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.94% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $126.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.23 (3.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 9.9973
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0355) – 1
= 15.25%
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9973 + -0.0028 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(5.3215)
= $204.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9973 + -0.0028 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(5.1796)
= $177.60
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9973 + -0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.9087)
= $135.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9973 + -0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.7668)
= $117.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.37% per annum.
- GNRC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.