Nextracker Inc. Class A Common Stock (NXT)
Nextracker Inc., an energy solutions company, provides solar tracker solutions for PV projects. The company is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.67% per annum.
- NXT price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $35.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.16% per annum.
- NXT price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024
a = 5.8807
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0586
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -75.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0586) – 1
= 26.41%
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8807 + -0.0039 × 470 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(4.1778)
= $65.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8807 + -0.0039 × 470 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.9434)
= $51.60
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8807 + -0.0039 × 615 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.6163)
= $37.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8807 + -0.0039 × 615 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.3819)
= $29.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.67% per annum.
- NXT price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $35.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024
a = 4.7961
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0416
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0416) – 1
= 18.08%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y371)
= Exp(a + b × X371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7961 + -0.0020 × 540 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.7884)
= $44.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y371)
= Exp(a + b × X371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7961 + -0.0020 × 540 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.6222)
= $37.42
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7961 + -0.0020 × 615 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.6369)
= $37.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7961 + -0.0020 × 615 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.4707)
= $32.16
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.16% per annum.
- NXT price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.