Stock Price Trends

Emerson Electric Company (EMR)

Emerson Electric Co. is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Ferguson, Missouri. The Fortune 500 company manufactures products and provides engineering services for a wide range of industrial, commercial, and consumer markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.21% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $129.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.81 (27.34%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.38% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: February 6, 2024

a = 4.4227

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0699

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0699) – 1
= 32.26%

January 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4227 + 0.0000 × 413 + 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(4.5760)
= $97.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4227 + 0.0000 × 413 – 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(4.2965)
= $73.44

February 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4227 + 0.0000 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(4.6131)
= $100.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4227 + 0.0000 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0699)
= Exp(4.3335)
= $76.21

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.21% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $129.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.81 (27.34%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2023
End date: August 2, 2024

a = 3.5213

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0495

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0495) – 1
= 21.91%

February 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5213 + 0.0007 × 1,176 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.4504)
= $85.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5213 + 0.0007 × 1,176 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.2523)
= $70.27

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5213 + 0.0007 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.8322)
= $125.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5213 + 0.0007 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.6341)
= $102.94

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.38% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.