Stock Price Trends

Emerson Electric Company (EMR)

Emerson Electric Co. is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Ferguson, Missouri. The Fortune 500 company manufactures products and provides engineering services for a wide range of industrial, commercial, and consumer markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 327.47% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $139.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 177.11% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of July 3, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.22%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: July 3, 2025

a = -2.3311

b = 0.0040

s = 0.0270

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 327.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.42%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3311 + 0.0040 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.6204)
= $101.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3311 + 0.0040 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.5122)
= $91.12

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3311 + 0.0040 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.9786)
= $145.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3311 + 0.0040 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.8704)
= $130.37

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 327.47% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $139.76 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 12, 2025
End date: July 3, 2025

a = -0.1907

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0189

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 177.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.85%

May 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1907 + 0.0028 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.7926)
= $120.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1907 + 0.0028 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.7169)
= $111.83

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1907 + 0.0028 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.9378)
= $139.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1907 + 0.0028 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.8622)
= $129.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 177.11% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of July 3, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.22%).