Stock Price Trends

Emerson Electric Company (EMR)

Emerson Electric Co. is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Ferguson, Missouri. The Fortune 500 company manufactures products and provides engineering services for a wide range of industrial, commercial, and consumer markets.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.00% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $105.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (0.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 128.53% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 10.5997

b = -0.0033

s = 0.0309

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0309) – 1
= 13.14%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5997 + -0.0033 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.9558)
= $141.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5997 + -0.0033 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.8323)
= $125.50

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5997 + -0.0033 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.6523)
= $104.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.5997 + -0.0033 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.5289)
= $92.65

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.00% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $105.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.57 (0.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 0.4931

b = 0.0023

s = 0.0296

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 128.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.59%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4931 + 0.0023 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.6351)
= $103.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4931 + 0.0023 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.5165)
= $91.52

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4931 + 0.0023 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.6804)
= $107.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4931 + 0.0023 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.5618)
= $95.76

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 128.53% per annum.
  • EMR price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.