Ametek Inc (AME)
AMETEK, Inc. is an American global manufacturer of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices with a headquarters in the United States and over 220 manufacturing sites worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.67% per annum.
- AME price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $193.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $52.48 (37.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.07% per annum.
- AME price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AME price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: November 3, 2022
a = 4.8406
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0705
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0705) – 1
= 32.56%
November 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8406 + 0.0000 × 354 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(4.9750)
= $144.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8406 + 0.0000 × 354 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(4.6931)
= $109.19
November 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8406 + 0.0000 × 1,078 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(4.9616)
= $142.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8406 + 0.0000 × 1,078 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(4.6797)
= $107.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.67% per annum.
- AME price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $193.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $52.48 (37.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: July 31, 2024
a = 4.2653
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0536
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0536) – 1
= 23.93%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2653 + 0.0005 × 883 + 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.8550)
= $128.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2653 + 0.0005 × 883 – 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.6405)
= $103.60
July 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2653 + 0.0005 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(5.3091)
= $202.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2653 + 0.0005 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(5.0946)
= $163.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.07% per annum.
- AME price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.