Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Pinnacle West Capital is a utility holding company that owns Arizona Public Service and Bright Canyon Energy.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.17% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $91.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.70% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PNW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4250
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0278
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0278) – 1
= 11.78%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4250 + 0.0012 × 1,517 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.2256)
= $68.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4250 + 0.0012 × 1,517 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.1142)
= $61.21
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4250 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.5810)
= $97.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4250 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.4697)
= $87.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.17% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $91.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.6795
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.98%
July 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6795 + 0.0004 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.4823)
= $88.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6795 + 0.0004 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.4055)
= $81.90
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6795 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.5332)
= $93.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6795 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.4564)
= $86.18
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.70% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.