Stock Price Trends

PG&E Corp (PCG)

PG&E Corporation, through its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, is engaged in the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas to customers in northern and central California, United States. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.09% per annum.
  • PCG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $21.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.14% per annum.
  • PCG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.23 (6.21%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PCG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 19, 2021
End date: September 25, 2023

a = 1.8218

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0860

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.09%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0860) – 1
= 41.06%

May 19, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8218 + 0.0008 × 545 + 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(2.4094)
= $11.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8218 + 0.0008 × 545 – 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(2.0653)
= $7.89

September 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y965)
= Exp(a + b × X965 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,404 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8218 + 0.0008 × 1,404 + 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(3.0643)
= $21.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y965)
= Exp(a + b × X965 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,404 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8218 + 0.0008 × 1,404 – 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(2.7203)
= $15.18

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.09% per annum.
  • PCG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $21.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: August 28, 2024

a = 2.5180

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0398

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0398) – 1
= 17.25%

October 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5180 + 0.0002 × 1,065 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(2.8259)
= $16.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5180 + 0.0002 × 1,065 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(2.6667)
= $14.39

August 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5180 + 0.0002 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(2.9710)
= $19.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5180 + 0.0002 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(2.8118)
= $16.64

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.14% per annum.
  • PCG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.23 (6.21%).