Stock Price Trends

Sempra Energy (SRE)

Sempra Energy is a North American energy infrastructure company based in San Diego, California. Sempra Energy's focus is on electric and natural gas infrastructure. Its operating companies include: Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) and San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) in Southern California; Oncor Electric Delivery Company (Oncor) in Texas; Sempra LNG; and IEnova, based in Mexico.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.68% per annum.
  • SRE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $71.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 72.35% per annum.
  • SRE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 8, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 8.0960

b = -0.0021

s = 0.0447

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0447) – 1
= 19.59%

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0960 + -0.0021 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.6408)
= $103.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0960 + -0.0021 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.4619)
= $86.66

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0960 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.3372)
= $76.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0960 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.1583)
= $63.96

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.68% per annum.
  • SRE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $71.56 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 6, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 1.5407

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0109

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0109) – 1
= 4.47%

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5407 + 0.0015 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2457)
= $69.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5407 + 0.0015 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2019)
= $66.81

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5407 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2844)
= $72.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5407 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0109)
= Exp(4.2407)
= $69.46

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 72.35% per annum.
  • SRE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.