NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)
NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers. The company is headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.16% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $55.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.57% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NWE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.7886
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.37%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,517 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.8691)
= $47.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,517 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.7704)
= $43.40
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.0791)
= $59.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.9804)
= $53.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.16% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $55.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.2712
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.35%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2712 + -0.0007 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.0746)
= $58.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2712 + -0.0007 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.0037)
= $54.80
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2712 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(4.0269)
= $56.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2712 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(3.9560)
= $52.25
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.57% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.