CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
CMS Energy (NYSE: CMS), based in Jackson, Michigan, is an energy company that is focused principally on utility operations in Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.48% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $68.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.16% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.9101
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.01%
September 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9101 + 0.0007 × 1,405 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(3.9999)
= $54.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9101 + 0.0007 × 1,405 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(3.8688)
= $47.89
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9101 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.3068)
= $74.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9101 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.1757)
= $65.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.48% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $68.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.0455
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0153
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0153) – 1
= 6.32%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0455 + -0.0005 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.2841)
= $72.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0455 + -0.0005 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.2228)
= $68.23
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0455 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.2535)
= $70.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0455 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.1922)
= $66.17
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.16% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.