Stock Price Trends

Ameren Corp (AEE)

Ameren Corporation is an American power company created December 31, 1997, by the merger of St. Louis, Missouri's Union Electric Company (formerly NYSE: UEP) and the neighboring Central Illinois Public Service Company (CIPSCO Inc. holding, formerly NYSE: CIP) of Springfield, Illinois. It is now a holding company for several power companies and energy companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.12% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $100.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.25% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.7458

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0345

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.79%

January 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7458 + 0.0010 × 1,385 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.2277)
= $68.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7458 + 0.0010 × 1,385 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.0898)
= $59.73

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7458 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.6766)
= $107.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7458 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.5386)
= $93.56

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.12% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $100.84 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.4010

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0325

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.89%

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4010 + 0.0012 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.3122)
= $74.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4010 + 0.0012 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.1822)
= $65.51

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4010 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.6974)
= $109.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4010 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.5673)
= $96.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.25% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.