Stock Price Trends

Ameren Corp (AEE)

Ameren Corporation is an American power company created December 31, 1997, by the merger of St. Louis, Missouri's Union Electric Company (formerly NYSE: UEP) and the neighboring Central Illinois Public Service Company (CIPSCO Inc. holding, formerly NYSE: CIP) of Springfield, Illinois. It is now a holding company for several power companies and energy companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.75% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $96.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.24 (4.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.96% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 12, 2024
End date: May 9, 2025

a = 2.9013

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0352

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.11%

January 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9013 + 0.0010 × 1,284 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.2238)
= $68.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9013 + 0.0010 × 1,284 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.0831)
= $59.33

May 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9013 + 0.0010 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.6948)
= $109.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9013 + 0.0010 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.5542)
= $95.03

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.75% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $96.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.24 (4.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 11, 2025
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 4.9201

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0154

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0154) – 1
= 6.37%

February 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9201 + -0.0002 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.6191)
= $101.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9201 + -0.0002 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.5573)
= $95.33

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9201 + -0.0002 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.5910)
= $98.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9201 + -0.0002 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.5292)
= $92.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.96% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.