Stock Price Trends

Ameren Corp (AEE)

Ameren Corporation is an American power company created December 31, 1997, by the merger of St. Louis, Missouri's Union Electric Company (formerly NYSE: UEP) and the neighboring Central Illinois Public Service Company (CIPSCO Inc. holding, formerly NYSE: CIP) of Springfield, Illinois. It is now a holding company for several power companies and energy companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.68% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $98.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.77% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 2.8137

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0348

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0348) – 1
= 14.94%

January 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8137 + 0.0010 × 1,358 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(4.2318)
= $68.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8137 + 0.0010 × 1,358 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(4.0925)
= $59.89

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8137 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(4.6955)
= $109.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8137 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(4.5563)
= $95.23

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.68% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $98.89 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 7, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 4.4543

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0170

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0170) – 1
= 7.04%

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4543 + 0.0001 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.6191)
= $101.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4543 + 0.0001 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.5511)
= $94.74

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4543 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.6251)
= $102.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4543 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.5571)
= $95.31

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.77% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.