Stock Price Trends

Ameren Corp (AEE)

Ameren Corporation is an American power company created December 31, 1997, by the merger of St. Louis, Missouri's Union Electric Company (formerly NYSE: UEP) and the neighboring Central Illinois Public Service Company (CIPSCO Inc. holding, formerly NYSE: CIP) of Springfield, Illinois. It is now a holding company for several power companies and energy companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.49% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $92.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.93% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.4419

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0244

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.25%

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4419 + 0.0017 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.2751)
= $71.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4419 + 0.0017 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.1775)
= $65.21

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4419 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.5815)
= $97.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4419 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.4839)
= $88.58

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.49% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $92.24 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.2904

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0139

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0139) – 1
= 5.70%

July 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2904 + 0.0012 × 1,713 + 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(4.4030)
= $81.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2904 + 0.0012 × 1,713 – 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(4.3476)
= $77.29

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2904 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(4.5406)
= $93.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2904 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0139)
= Exp(4.4852)
= $88.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.93% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.