Stock Price Trends

Ameren Corp (AEE)

Ameren Corporation is an American power company created December 31, 1997, by the merger of St. Louis, Missouri's Union Electric Company (formerly NYSE: UEP) and the neighboring Central Illinois Public Service Company (CIPSCO Inc. holding, formerly NYSE: CIP) of Springfield, Illinois. It is now a holding company for several power companies and energy companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.92% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $98.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.12% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 2.7307

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0357

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.34%

January 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7307 + 0.0010 × 1,412 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.2372)
= $69.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7307 + 0.0010 × 1,412 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.0945)
= $60.01

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7307 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.6570)
= $105.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7307 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.5143)
= $91.31

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.92% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $98.73 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 30, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 0.6757

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0152

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0152) – 1
= 6.26%

December 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6757 + 0.0022 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(4.5105)
= $90.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6757 + 0.0022 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(4.4497)
= $85.60

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6757 + 0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(4.6510)
= $104.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6757 + 0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0152)
= Exp(4.5902)
= $98.52

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.12% per annum.
  • AEE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.