Stock Price Trends

PHINIA Inc. (PHIN)

PHINIA Inc. develops and manufactures gasoline and diesel fuel injection components and systems. The company is headquartered in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 146.39% per annum.
  • PHIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $52.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.82 (9.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.18% per annum.
  • PHIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PHIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: June 12, 2024

a = 2.9178

b = 0.0025

s = 0.0551

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 146.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0551) – 1
= 24.64%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y59)
= Exp(a + b × X59 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 85 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9178 + 0.0025 × 85 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(3.2379)
= $25.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y59)
= Exp(a + b × X59 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 85 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9178 + 0.0025 × 85 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(3.0176)
= $20.44

June 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y241)
= Exp(a + b × X241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 350 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9178 + 0.0025 × 350 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(3.8926)
= $49.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y241)
= Exp(a + b × X241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 350 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9178 + 0.0025 × 350 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(3.6723)
= $39.34

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 146.39% per annum.
  • PHIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $52.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.82 (9.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: November 7, 2024

a = 3.3677

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0503

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0503) – 1
= 22.28%

March 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y176)
= Exp(a + b × X176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3677 + 0.0010 × 257 + 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.7307)
= $41.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y176)
= Exp(a + b × X176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3677 + 0.0010 × 257 – 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.5296)
= $34.11

November 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y344)
= Exp(a + b × X344 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3677 + 0.0010 × 498 + 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.9769)
= $53.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y344)
= Exp(a + b × X344 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3677 + 0.0010 × 498 – 2 × 0.0503)
= Exp(3.7758)
= $43.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.18% per annum.
  • PHIN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.