Stock Price Trends

Group 1 Automotive Inc (GPI)

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. is a leading automotive retailer headquartered in Houston, Texas, operating a diverse portfolio of dealerships across the United States, the UK, and Brazil. The company focuses on providing a comprehensive range of services, including new and used vehicle sales, automotive repair, and financing solutions, making it a significant player in the retail automotive sector. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction and operational efficiency, Group 1 Automotive is well-positioned to capitalize on market trends while delivering sustainable growth and value to its investors.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.67% per annum.
  • GPI price at the close of November 7, 2025 was $390.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $82.13 (17.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.80% per annum.
  • GPI price at the close of November 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: March 12, 2025

a = 4.4660

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0761

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0761) – 1
= 35.58%

June 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4660 + 0.0010 × 581 + 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(5.2060)
= $182.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4660 + 0.0010 × 581 – 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(4.9016)
= $134.50

March 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4660 + 0.0010 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(6.2207)
= $503.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4660 + 0.0010 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(5.9163)
= $371.03

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.67% per annum.
  • GPI price at the close of November 7, 2025 was $390.87 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $82.13 (17.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 7, 2025

a = 5.8960

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0580

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0580) – 1
= 26.09%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8960 + 0.0001 × 1,458 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.1608)
= $473.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8960 + 0.0001 × 1,458 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(5.9289)
= $375.76

November 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8960 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(6.1982)
= $491.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8960 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(5.9663)
= $390.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.80% per annum.
  • GPI price at the close of November 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.