Group 1 Automotive Inc (GPI)
Group 1 Automotive, Inc., operates in the automotive retail industry. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.03% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $427.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $178.38 (71.52%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.62% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 30, 2020
End date: January 25, 2023
a = 4.9650
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0840
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0840) – 1
= 39.93%
December 30, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9650 + 0.0002 × 393 + 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(5.2161)
= $184.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9650 + 0.0002 × 393 – 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(4.8801)
= $131.64
January 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9650 + 0.0002 × 1,149 + 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(5.3760)
= $216.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9650 + 0.0002 × 1,149 – 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(5.0400)
= $154.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.03% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $427.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $178.38 (71.52%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: December 2, 2024
a = 4.2558
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0763
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.70%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 849 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2558 + 0.0009 × 849 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.1847)
= $178.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 849 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2558 + 0.0009 × 849 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.8794)
= $131.55
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2558 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.0780)
= $436.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2558 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.7727)
= $321.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.62% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.