O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)
O'Reilly Auto Parts is an American auto parts retailer that provides automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States serving both the professional service providers and do-it-yourself customers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.76% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $1,188.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.34% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2022
End date: October 8, 2024
a = 6.1922
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0422
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.40%
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1922 + 0.0005 × 1,071 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(6.7811)
= $881.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1922 + 0.0005 × 1,071 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(6.6122)
= $744.12
October 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1922 + 0.0005 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(7.1165)
= $1,232.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1922 + 0.0005 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(6.9476)
= $1,040.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.76% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $1,188.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.9451
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0243
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.21%
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9451 + 0.0012 × 1,636 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(6.9389)
= $1,031.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9451 + 0.0012 × 1,636 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(6.8417)
= $936.09
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9451 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(7.1637)
= $1,291.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9451 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(7.0664)
= $1,171.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.34% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.