Valvoline Inc (VVV)
Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets and supplies automotive and engine maintenance products and services. The company is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.04% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $38.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.97% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 19, 2021
End date: February 6, 2024
a = 3.3430
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0839
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0839) – 1
= 39.88%
April 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y352)
= Exp(a + b × X352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3430 + 0.0001 × 515 + 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.5802)
= $35.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y352)
= Exp(a + b × X352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3430 + 0.0001 × 515 – 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.2446)
= $25.65
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3430 + 0.0001 × 1,538 + 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.7181)
= $41.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3430 + 0.0001 × 1,538 – 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(3.3825)
= $29.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.04% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $38.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: November 18, 2024
a = 2.9888
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0790
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0790) – 1
= 37.16%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9888 + 0.0004 × 834 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(3.5050)
= $33.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9888 + 0.0004 × 834 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(3.1890)
= $24.26
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9888 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(3.9302)
= $50.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9888 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(3.6142)
= $37.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.97% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.