Valvoline Inc (VVV)
Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets and supplies automotive and engine maintenance products and services. The company is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.13% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $34.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.04% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 4.5372
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.06%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5372 + -0.0005 × 1,427 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.8939)
= $49.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5372 + -0.0005 × 1,427 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.7110)
= $40.90
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5372 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.6889)
= $40.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5372 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(3.5061)
= $33.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.13% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $34.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 8, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.1373
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0421
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0421) – 1
= 18.33%
July 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1373 + -0.0009 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.8747)
= $48.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1373 + -0.0009 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.7064)
= $40.71
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1373 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.6449)
= $38.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1373 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.4766)
= $32.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.04% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.