Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
Murphy USA Inc. is engaged in the marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.24% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $525.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.20 (0.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.37% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $22.07 (4.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2023
End date: September 18, 2024
a = 4.0075
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0356
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0356) – 1
= 15.31%
February 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0075 + 0.0013 × 1,189 + 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(5.5943)
= $268.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0075 + 0.0013 × 1,189 – 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(5.4519)
= $233.19
September 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0075 + 0.0013 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(6.3260)
= $558.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0075 + 0.0013 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0356)
= Exp(6.1835)
= $484.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.24% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $525.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.20 (0.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 7.2475
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0249
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.47%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2475 + -0.0006 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(6.2954)
= $542.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2475 + -0.0006 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(6.1958)
= $490.69
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2475 + -0.0006 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(6.2293)
= $507.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2475 + -0.0006 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(6.1298)
= $459.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.37% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $22.07 (4.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.