Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (Advance) is an American automotive aftermarket parts provider. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, it serves both professional installer and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.61% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $38.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.51% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 18, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.6618
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1943
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1943) – 1
= 117.50%
October 18, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y479)
= Exp(a + b × X479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6618 + -0.0016 × 697 + 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(5.9220)
= $373.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y479)
= Exp(a + b × X479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6618 + -0.0016 × 697 – 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(5.1450)
= $171.58
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6618 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(4.0945)
= $60.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6618 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1943)
= Exp(3.3175)
= $27.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.61% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $38.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.2175
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0825
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -73.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0825) – 1
= 39.10%
March 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2175 + -0.0036 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.6473)
= $104.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2175 + -0.0036 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.3173)
= $74.99
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2175 + -0.0036 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(3.7375)
= $41.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2175 + -0.0036 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(3.4075)
= $30.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.51% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.