Monro Muffler Brake Inc (MNRO)
Monro, Inc. provides auto underbody repair and tire sales and services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.42% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $28.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.69% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MNRO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2021
End date: September 23, 2024
a = 4.4531
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1162
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1162) – 1
= 59.15%
February 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4531 + -0.0007 × 441 + 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(4.3787)
= $79.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4531 + -0.0007 × 441 – 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(3.9140)
= $50.10
September 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4531 + -0.0007 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(3.4641)
= $31.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4531 + -0.0007 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(2.9994)
= $20.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.42% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $28.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = 1.0982
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.13%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0982 + 0.0012 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.2317)
= $25.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0982 + 0.0012 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.0400)
= $20.90
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0982 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.4725)
= $32.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0982 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.2808)
= $26.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.69% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.