Monro Muffler Brake Inc (MNRO)
Monro, Inc. provides auto underbody repair and tire sales and services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.90% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $14.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.01 (0.10%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.98% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.29 (1.98%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MNRO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 11.0184
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.70%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0184 + -0.0045 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.4678)
= $32.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0184 + -0.0045 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.3306)
= $27.96
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0184 + -0.0045 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(2.8102)
= $16.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0184 + -0.0045 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(2.6730)
= $14.48
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.90% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $14.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.01 (0.10%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 29, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 9.4897
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.29%
January 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4897 + -0.0037 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.0506)
= $21.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4897 + -0.0037 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(2.9170)
= $18.49
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4897 + -0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(2.8256)
= $16.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4897 + -0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(2.6921)
= $14.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.98% per annum.
- MNRO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.29 (1.98%).