Navient Corp (NAVI)
Navient Corporation provides education loan management and business processing solutions for federal, state, and local government, education, and healthcare clients in the United States. The company is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.35% per annum.
- NAVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- NAVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NAVI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.8470
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1020
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1020) – 1
= 50.38%
April 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + -0.0001 × 526 + 2 × 0.1020)
= Exp(3.0168)
= $20.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + -0.0001 × 526 – 2 × 0.1020)
= Exp(2.6088)
= $13.58
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1020)
= Exp(2.9323)
= $18.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8470 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1020)
= Exp(2.5243)
= $12.48
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.35% per annum.
- NAVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.2945
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.69%
June 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2945 + -0.0003 × 1,296 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.9644)
= $19.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2945 + -0.0003 × 1,296 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.7681)
= $15.93
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2945 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.7893)
= $16.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2945 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.5930)
= $13.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- NAVI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.