Ally Financial Inc (ALLY)
Ally Financial Inc., a banking holding company, offers a variety of digital financial products and services to consumers, business and corporate clients primarily in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.05% per annum.
- ALLY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $39.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.43% per annum.
- ALLY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.58 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 1.5201
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0794
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0794) – 1
= 37.40%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5201 + 0.0012 × 1,278 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(3.2595)
= $26.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5201 + 0.0012 × 1,278 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(2.9417)
= $18.95
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5201 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(3.9348)
= $51.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5201 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(3.6170)
= $37.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.05% per annum.
- ALLY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $39.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 2.3100
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0295
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0295) – 1
= 12.54%
January 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3100 + 0.0008 × 1,593 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.6279)
= $37.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3100 + 0.0008 × 1,593 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.5097)
= $33.44
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3100 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.8104)
= $45.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3100 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.6923)
= $40.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.43% per annum.
- ALLY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.58 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.