Stock Price Trends

Enova International Inc (ENVA)

Enova International, Inc., a technology and analytics company, offers online financial services in the United States, Brazil, Australia, and Canada. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.89% per annum.
  • ENVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $100.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 182.93% per annum.
  • ENVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.0157

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0826

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0826) – 1
= 39.13%

October 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0157 + 0.0019 × 1,430 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(3.9332)
= $51.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0157 + 0.0019 × 1,430 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(3.6030)
= $36.71

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0157 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.6955)
= $109.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0157 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.3652)
= $78.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.89% per annum.
  • ENVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $100.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 20, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.6099

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0630

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 182.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0630) – 1
= 28.68%

May 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6099 + 0.0028 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.1977)
= $66.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6099 + 0.0028 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(3.9455)
= $51.70

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6099 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.7191)
= $112.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6099 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.4670)
= $87.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 182.93% per annum.
  • ENVA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.