Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)
Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, offers debt recovery solutions and other related services to consumers in a variety of financial assets worldwide. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.24% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $48.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.59% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ECPG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2021
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 4.3475
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0840
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0840) – 1
= 39.92%
November 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y493)
= Exp(a + b × X493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3475 + -0.0003 × 715 + 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(4.2817)
= $72.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y493)
= Exp(a + b × X493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3475 + -0.0003 × 715 – 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(3.9459)
= $51.72
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3475 + -0.0003 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(3.9232)
= $50.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3475 + -0.0003 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(3.5873)
= $36.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.24% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $48.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.0492
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0696
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.08%
September 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0492 + -0.0001 × 1,022 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(4.0569)
= $57.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0492 + -0.0001 × 1,022 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.7786)
= $43.76
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0492 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.9535)
= $52.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0492 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.6752)
= $39.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.59% per annum.
- ECPG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.