American Express Company (AXP)
The American Express Company is a multinational financial services corporation headquartered at 200 Vesey Street in the Battery Park City neighborhood of Lower Manhattan in New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.91% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $285.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.79% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AXP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.9450
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0592
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0592) – 1
= 26.71%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0015 × 1,364 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.1096)
= $165.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0015 × 1,364 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.8729)
= $130.70
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.8027)
= $331.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9450 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.5660)
= $261.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.91% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $285.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 26, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.7772
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0316
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.47%
January 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7772 + 0.0010 × 1,528 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.3898)
= $219.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7772 + 0.0010 × 1,528 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.2634)
= $193.15
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7772 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.6920)
= $296.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7772 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.5656)
= $261.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.79% per annum.
- AXP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.